The REAL Statisitics for Kelowna Real Estate Values
In today's Kelowna Real Estate blog we are going to review where the real estate market is for Kelowna, it is now November of 2022 and the sky isn’t falling!
It may be 'correcting', but it certainly isn't falling.
Now that said, are we seeing a trend in the marketplace with respect to sales and now to prices?
Yes and we will certainly get to that in just a minute.
First I am going to go over just a few generic numbers that don’t really paint a picture without context so here we go:
Right now there are 2352 listings in the MLS for the Central Okanagan which also includes Big White as well as West Kelowna, Peachland, Ellison, Fintry and Lake Country.
The average days on market is quite a bit higher than last year, but also within what we would call a normal market at 42.
Kelowna's Benchmark Price which in the graphic above is an average of the three different property types, Single Family, Apartment Condo and Townhouses, it is sitting at $757,000.
The total number of sales year to date is sitting at 4561.
What is Pricing Like in Kelowna this November?
I will tie this data in as we go along, for right now though let’s look at some pricing in these different property types:
The Kelowna Single Family Home Benchmark Price is sitting at $981,800 for the 3rd Quarter of 2022.
Now if we look back 12 months ago the Benchmark pricing is sitting pretty close to where it is today.
It was only slightly higher at $982,400
The Townhouse Benchmark price is sitting at $771,000 where one year ago it was $709,000 which is an increase of about 8% year over year.
For a market that is supposed to be tanking, this property type seems to be pretty resilient.
Alright, the apartment strata Benchmark price this last quarter was $519,000 where last year it was $478,100 which is an increase of again, about 8%.
The numbers are just so easy to manipulate, I could just leave it there and you’d think to yourself,
“Man…it doesn’t seem like there is any kind of a pattern here, what is he even talking about. It seems like the market is going up and up and up.”
In October the benchmark price for apartment style strata was down to $490,600 which is a drop of about 5.5% from where things were at the end of the 3rd quarter.
The second quarter had the benchmark price at $522,000 and the end of the first quarter it was at $552,900. If we look at this quarter by quarter you can see the pattern, that as sales continue to slide so do the price points.
From Q1 to Q2 there was a 6% slide in prices. From Q1 to Q3 there has been about a 6.6% slide, sales in this segment are down as we can see in this slide, 38%.
What is the Kelowna Townhouse Market Doing?
Let’s look at Townhouses and then round it out with single family in the Central Okanagan.
The townhouse benchmark price at the end of Q1 was $801,300, at the end of the second quarter it was $783,500 which was a difference of 2.3%. The benchmark price at the end of Q3 as mentioned earlier was $770,100 which is a drop of 4% overall.
It looks a little different when we actually start to compare real numbers versus just the year over year statistics, doesn’t it?
This is why I feel the average days on market is continuing to increase, it’s simply because seller’s have yet to get to a realistic point of view of the market. I see a lot of listings expire right now because the pricing strategy they are using is based on data that is upwards of 6 months old.
We have to look at numbers in the here and now and price where we know the market is going to be, not where it was.
Is the Single Family Housing Market in Kelowna Tanking?
Ok, last segment which is the single family style home.
The benchmark price in Q1 was $1.152M, in the second quarter it was $1.060M and in the Q3 report which was just released the benchmark price for Single Family homes in the Central Okanagan came in at $981,800. This is a difference over the course of a year of about 17.4%.
Now, the year isn’t over yet, October’s numbers are about 1.5% higher than the end of Q3 so we are down a total of 15.9% overall.
If I were sitting in your kitchen going over stats and I told you the market is actually up from 12 months ago, would I be wrong?
No. But would I have given you all of the data in order for us to make a decision on your pricing?
The trend is that the market is correcting, I don’t believe we are going to see any more large drops before the end of the year. Sales are going to continue to drop off as they always do at this time of year, but prices likely won’t follow.
We have probably seen the bottom of the real estate market for 2022 here in November, what happens in 2023 will really be determined by jobs numbers, interest rates, inflation, geo-political goings on and of course our own political happenings here domestically, like will there be a provincial and/or federal election in the new year?
I realize the first 15 videos on this channel have been about highlighting our community and talking about what to expect here in Kelowna when people make the move here.
It’s always been my plan to create blog posts and videos like this one to speak to residents of Kelowna, plainly and realistically about property values. These kinds of videos will paint a picture for both buyers and sellers alike to ensure you are educated on what is happening in our local real estate market.
If you are thinking of buying your next home or selling your current one and want to chat about how we can help, then feel free to send me an email to firstname.lastname@example.org or give me a call at 778-716-7527.
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